Evaluating the Effect of Macro-Level Health Policies on Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Epidemic Control in Iran
-
Mohammad Meskarpour-Amiri
,
Parisa Mehdizadeh
,
Maryam Yaghoubi
,
Sayyed Morteza Hosseini Shokouh
,
Taha Nasiri
,
Babak Hassanlouei
,
Hossein Amini
Abstract
This study aimed to evaluate the effect of macro-level health policies on COVID-19 outbreak control in Iran. This was a descriptive-analytical study of the applied time series performed on April 19, 2020. The effect of four macro-health interventions, including reducing overcrowding, social distancing, limitation of high-risk economic activities, and active case detection, was examined. The Vector auto-regression (VAR) was used to investigate the effect of the interventions. The augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF) was used to ensure the time stability of the time series and the existence of a unit-root. To analyzing data and estimation VAR models, STATA software was used. P of less than 0.1 was considered significant. The increase in the number of cases with two days’ lag had a positive and significant effect on increasing the number of new cases of the COVID-19 (C=0.176, P=0.097). Adopting an overcrowding reduction policy with both 2-day lags (c=0.095, P=0.066) and 4-day lags (c=0.314, P=0.000) had a negative and significant effect on increasing the number of new cases of the COVID-19. Our study showed that overcrowding reduction and new COVID-19 case detection could play an effective role in controlling the epidemic of COVID-19 in Iran. It seems that the best advice is to stay home and use strategies to identify more patients.
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34. Cohen J, Kupferschmidt K. Countries test tactics in ‘war’against COVID-19. Science 2020;367:1287-8.
35. Agosto A, Giudici P. A Poisson autoregressive model to understand COVID-19 contagion dynamics. Risks 2020;8:77.
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2. China NHCotPsRo. A daily briefing on novel coronavirus cases in China. (Accessed Feb 12, 2020, at http://en.nhc.gov.cn/2020-02/12/ c_76463.htm.)
3. WHO. Coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) situation report 56, 2020.
4. Lai C-C, Shih T-P, Ko W-C, Tang H-J, Hsueh P-R. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and corona virus disease-2019 (COVID-19): the epidemic and the challenges. Int J Antimicrob Agents 2020;55:105924.
5. Tabatabaii SA, Soltani P, Khanbabaee G, Sharma D, Valizadeh R, Farahbakhsh N, et al. SARS Coronavirus 2, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome in Children: A Review on Epidemiology, Clinical Presentation, and Diagnosis. Arch Pediatr Infect Dis (Online ahead of Print) 2020;8:e104860.
6. Valizadeh R, Baradaran A, Mirzazadeh A, Bhaskar LVKS. Coronavirus-nephropathy; renal involvement in COVID-19. J Renal Inj Prev 2020;9:e18.
7. Dadashzadeh N, Farshid S, Valizadeh R, Nanbakhsh M, Rahimi MM. Acute respiratory distress syndrome in COVID-19 disease. Immunopathol Persa 2020;6:e16.
8. Samimi Ardestani SH, Mohammadi Ardehali M, Rabbani Anari M, Rahmaty B, Erfanian R, Akbari M, et al. The coronavirus disease 2019: the prevalence, prognosis, and recovery from olfactory dysfunction (OD). Acta Otolaryngol 2020:1-10.
9. Memish ZA, Ahmed QA, Schlagenhauf P, Doumbia S, Khan A. No time for dilemma: mass gatherings must be suspended. Lancet 2020;395:1191-2.
10. Eilersen A, Sneppen K. Estimating cost-benefit of quarantine length for Covid-19 mitigation. medRxiv, 2020.
11. Forouzesh M, Rahimi A, Valizadeh R, Dadashzadeh N, Mirzazadeh A. Clinical display, diagnostics and genetic implication of novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic. Eur Rev Med Pharmacol Sci 2020;24:4607-15.
12. Barzegar A, Ghadipasha M, Rezaei N, Forouzesh M, Valizadeh R. New hope for treatment of respiratory involvement following COVID-19 by bromhexine. J Nephropharmacol 2021;10:e11.
13. Rahimi MM, Jahantabi E, Lotfi B, Forouzesh M, Valizadeh R, Farshid S. Renal and liver injury following the treatment of COVID-19 by remdesivir. J Nephropathol 2021;10:e10.
14. Valizadeh R, Dadashzadeh N, Zakeri R, James Kelllner S, Rahimi MM. Drug therapy in hospitalized patients with very severe symptoms following COVID-19. J Nephropharmacol 2020;9:e21.
15. Lotfi B, Farshid S, Dadashzadeh N, Valizadeh R, Rahimi MM. Is Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Associated with Renal Involvement? A Review of Century Infection. Jundishapur J Microbiol 2020;13:e102899.
16. The L. COVID-19: fighting panic with information. Lancet 2020;395:537.
17. Hensley L. Social distancing is out, physical distancing is in here’s how to do it. Global News-Canada, 2020.
18. Kumar S. Corona Virus Outbreak: Keep Physical Distancing, Not Social Distancing. SSRN, 2020.
19. Kinlaw K, Barrett DH, Levine RJ. Ethical guidelines in pandemic influenza: recommendations of the Ethics Subcommittee of the Advisory Committee of the Director, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Disaster Med Public Health Prep 2009;3:S185-92.
20. Besharat S, Malekpour Alamdari N, Dadashzadeh N, Talaie R, Mousavi SS, et al. Clinical and demographic characteristics of patients with COVID-19 who died in Modarres hospital. Tohoku J Exp Med (Ahead of Print) 2020.
21. Zhuang Z, Zhao S, Lin Q, Cao P, Lou Y, Yang L, et al. Preliminary estimation of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Iran: a modelling analysis based on overseas cases and air travel data. Int J Infect Dis 2020;94:29-31.
22. AFP. Iran says coronavirus infections show 'gradual' decline". Timesofisrael, 2020.
23. "Iran renews coronavirus warning as 'low risk' activities restart". reuters. (Accessed 2020, at https://behdasht.gov.ir/ 50% reduction in hospitalization and 70% death from corona in the country / People do not postpone necessary vaccinations ,2020.)
24. Laupacis A. Working together to contain and manage COVID-19. CMAJ 2020;192:E340-1.
25. The LRM. COVID-19: delay, mitigate, and communicate. Lancet Respir Med 2020;8:321.
26. Daneshfar M, Dadashzadeh N, Ahmadpour M, Ragati Haghi H, Rahmani V, Forouzesh M, et al. Lessons of mortality following COVID-19 epidemic in the United States especially in the geriatrics. J Nephropharmacol 2021;10:e06.
27. Moghadami M, Hassanzadeh M, Hedayati A, Malekolkalami M. Modeling for Corona Virus Outbreak in IRAN. medRxiv, 2020;
28. Zahiri A, RafieeNasab S, Roohi E. Prediction of Peak and Termination of Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Epidemic in Iran. medRxiv, 2020.
29. Barkur G, Vibha GBK. Sentiment Analysis of Nationwide Lockdown due to COVID 19 Outbreak: Evidence from India. Asian J Psychiatr. 2020;
30. Singh R, Adhikari R. Age-structured impact of social distancing on the COVID-19 epidemic in India. arXiv Prepr arXiv200312055. 2020;51:102089.
31. World Health Organization. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): situation report, 2020.
32. Greenstone M, Nigam V. Does social distancing matter? University of Chicago, Becker Friedman Institute for Economics Working Paper, 2020.
33. Atkeson A. What will be the economic impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough estimates of disease scenarios. Natl Bur Econ Res, 2020.
34. Cohen J, Kupferschmidt K. Countries test tactics in ‘war’against COVID-19. Science 2020;367:1287-8.
35. Agosto A, Giudici P. A Poisson autoregressive model to understand COVID-19 contagion dynamics. Risks 2020;8:77.
36. Benvenuto D, Giovanetti M, Vassallo L, Angeletti S, Ciccozzi M. Application of the ARIMA model on the COVID-2019 epidemic dataset. Data Brief 2020;29:105340.
37. Shojaee S, Pourhoseingholi MA, Ashtari S, Vahedian-Azimi A, Asadzadeh-Aghdaei H, Zali MR. Predicting the mortality due to Covid-19 by the next month for Italy, Iran and South Korea; a simulation study. Gastroenterol Hepatol Bed Bench 2020;13:177-9.
| Files | ||
| Issue | Vol 59, No 1 (2021) | |
| Section | Articles | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.18502/acta.v59i1.5402 | |
| Keywords | ||
| : Macro-level health policy Novel coronavirus Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) | ||
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How to Cite
1.
Meskarpour-Amiri M, Mehdizadeh P, Yaghoubi M, Hosseini Shokouh SM, Nasiri T, Hassanlouei B, Amini H. Evaluating the Effect of Macro-Level Health Policies on Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Epidemic Control in Iran. Acta Med Iran. 2021;59(1):44-49.
